**Probability and Induction (Phil.
148 | Spring 2008 | UCB | Philosophy) **

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Professor |
GSI |
Lecture |
Sections |

Branden Fitelson |
Raul Saucedo |
Tu/Th 11–12:30 |
See our sections page. |

**Announcements**

**05/14/08: Raul's review session will be tomorrow (5/15) @ 6pm @ 100 wheeler**.**05/12/08**: I have posted solutions to HW #4 (except the extra-credit, since these are repeated on the final extra-credit assignment).**05/12/08**: I have posted a set of extra-credit problems, as well as a "practice final exam". The extra-credit problems are due at the final exam, and we will discuss the "practice final" at the review session on May 19 @ 4pm @ 122 Wheeler.**05/08/08**: Branden will have office hours on Tuesday May 13 from 2–4pm. Raul will be holding review session for the final on Thursday May 15 @ 6pm (room TBA). I will be distributing extra credit problems and a sample final exam by next Tuesday (5/13) morning (stay tuned).**05/06/08**: I have posted a "hints and amendments" handout for HW #5, which I will also distribute at tonight's discussion section.**05/05/08**:**New plan for HW #5**— It will be due on the last class day (Thursday May 8). And, we'll have a discussion for it on Tuesday,**May 6 @ 6pm****@****110 Wheeler**. I'll also be announcing some extra-credit problems in the last week of class (to be due ay the final exam on the 20th). We'll also have a review session for the final, which will take place on**May 19 @ 4pm @ 122 Wheeler**. The final exam will take place at**20 Barrows**(on 5/20 @ 8am). Finally, Branden will not have office hours on Tuesday May 6.**04/23/08**: Branden has the flu. So,**Thursday's (4/24) lecture is canceled**.**04/21/08**: The make up section for Raul's regular Tuesday 10-11 section will be on Thursday 10-11 @ 206 Wheeler. The make up section for Raul's regular Wednesday 9-10 section will be on Friday 12-1 (location TBA). Raul's make up OH will be Friday 11-12 and 1-2 at his office (5323 Tolman).**04/16/08**: I have posted a handout on "some abstract properties of confirmation relations & four theories of confirmation". HW #5 has also been posted (it's due in two weeks).**04/14/08**: Tuesday's (4/15) HW #4 discussion session will be**@ 6pm @ 136 Barrows**.**04/1****0/08**: I've posted the notes for our two guest lectures this week (#19 & #20). Thanks, Mike and Kenny!**04/04/08**: The grades for HW #2 are now posted on bspace. People did pretty well (mean = 88, standard deviation = 16). I'll post solutions soon.**04/02/08**: Branden will be in Europe next week, so he will not be holding office hours. But,**lectures will be given by guest lecturers**. So,**class will meet**next week. HW #4 has been posted. We'll have a discussion about HW #4 on**Tuesday April 15 @ 6pm**(stay tuned for the location).**03/30/08**: I have posted solutions to HW #1. I'll be posting the HW #2 solutions soon. I will be running another "HW discussion" on**Tuesday April 1 @ 6pm @ 251 Dwinelle**.**03/20/08**: I have updated my hints handout (also its LaTeX source) for HW #2 (to include Raul's hints handout). I will not have office hours tomorrow (after the mid-term). Good luck on the mid-term, and have a great spring break! I have also posted HW #3. It will be due on April 3. I will be running another "HW discussion" on**Tuesday April 1 @ 6pm**. Stay tuned (here and by email) for the location of that session.**03/11/08**: By popular demand, here is the LaTeX source file for my HW #2 hints handout. Note: in all of my handouts and lecture notes for the course, I am using the Lucida Bright fonts, which are not free. I have removed these from the above LaTeX source file (which just uses the standard/default/free Computer Modern fonts), since they would just cause the file to give errors on normal LaTeX distributions.**03/05/08**: Branden will be holding a "HW #2 / Mid-Term discussion / review session" on Monday**March 17 @ 6pm @ 223 Dwinelle**. Also,*we will**drop your lowest HW score*.**03/04/08**: HW #1 will be returned in sections. The median was 93 and the standard deviation was 22. There were "two curves" on this HW (this is not unusual for technical HW assignments). We will allow you to*drop your lowest HW score*. We will also be scheduling "HW discussions" before each HW assignment is due. Stay tuned for time and location of the HW #2/Mid-Term discussion/review session. HW #2 will be due on March 20 (the same day as the mid-term).**02/28/08**: I've posted a handout on the "Package Principle" (and the conditions under which it is required to run a DBA).**02/27/08**: I've made two changes to the assignment & exam schedule. Specifically, I have moved the mid-term back 2 weeks (from 3/6 to 3/20), and I have moved assignment #3 back one week (from 3/13 to 3/20). Finally, I have added a paper by van Fraassen on frequencies and probabilities (the first few pages explain why hypothetical infinite limiting frequencies do not satisfy the classical probability axioms).**02/2708**: I have posted HW #2 and a hints handout for HW #2. I strongly recommend studying the hints handout before you try to solve the HW #2 problems. I have also posted the*Mathematica*notebook I used in lecture to simulate a fair coin being tossed*n*times.**02/19/08**: I have posted the quiz solutions. People did well on the quiz (average: 93). I will be using straight grading scale for this course. Here it is: A+ >97, A (94,97], A- (90,94], B+ (87,90], B (84,87], B- (80,84], C+ (77,80], C (74,77], C- (70,74], D [50,70], F <50.**02/13/08**: I have posted Homework Assignment #1. It is due on 2/28/08.**02****/10/08**: I have posted a handout explaining why Skyrms's "rules" for probability calculus are incomplete. Note: this handout was updated (on 2/10) since the first version I posted last week.**02/06/08**: I have decided to move the quiz back from next Tuesday (2/12) to next Thursday (2/14).**02/06/08**: Raul's office hours are being held in 5323 Tolman this semester (not 301 Moses, as I had previously listed on this website).**02/04/08**: Branden's Tuesday office hours this week will be 3–4.**02/03/08**: We have a permanent location for the Wednesday section: 2304 Tolman.**01/30/08**: We have a permanent location for the Tuesday section: 206 Wheeler. Stay tuned for the Wed. section permanent location.**01/2****8/08**: Branden's Thursday office hours will be 2:30-3:30 this week. I have posted a*Mathematica*notebook, which uses**PrSAT**to go through the algebraic probability calculus examples discussed in Lecture #3.**01/27/08**: The sections have been set. You should have received an email telling you which section you're in. For next week, sections will probably meet in 301 Moses Hall. Permanent locations will be emailed to section members and posted on our sections page.**01/15/08**: Note that our room has been changed from~~240~~~~Mulford~~to 103 Moffitt.