# Publications

- "A New Garber-Style Solution to the Problem of Old Evidence" (with Stephan Hartmann) to appear in
*Philosophy of Science*.

- "Closure, Counter-Closure, and Inferential Knowledge" to appear in
*Explaining Knowledge: New Essays on the Gettier Problem*, C. de Almeida, R. Borges and P. Klein*eds.*, Oxford University Press.

- "The Strongest Possible Lewisian Triviality Result",
*Thought*. Here is thenotebook that accompanies this paper. Here is a handout which explains this result, and its relation to Gibbard's collapse theorem.*Mathematica*

- "Remarks on 'Random Sequences'" (with Dan Osherson),
*Australasian Journal of Logic*.

- "A Proposal for Decreasing Geographical Inequality in College Admissions" (with Tina Eliassi-Rad), Appendix of "Talent is Everywhere" by Danielle Allen in
*The Future of Affirmative Action*.

- "Declarations of Independence" (with Alan Hájek),
*Synthese*.

- "Accuracy, Coherence and Evidence" (with Kenny Easwaran),
*Oxford Studies in Epistemology 5*, T. Szabó Gendler & J. Hawthorne (*eds.*). Here is a podcast in which I discuss some of the ideas in this paper.

- "Individual Coherence and Group Coherence" (with Rachael Briggs, Fabrizio Cariani, and Kenny Easwaran),
*Essays in Collective Epistemology*, J. Lackey (*ed.*), Oxford University Press.

- "Gibbard's Collapse Theorem for the Indicative Conditional: An Axiomatic Approach", in
*Automated Reasoning and Mathematics: Essays in Memory of William McCune*, Springer, 2013. Here is an input file (tptp/fof syntax) for investigating Gibbardian collapse (using various AR tools). And, here is an input file (prover9 syntax) for verifying the main proof in the paper. Here is a handout which explains this result, and its relation to Lewis's triviality result.

- "Updating: Learning versus supposing" (with Jiaying Zhao, Vincenzo Crupi, Katya Tentori, and Dan Osherson),
*Cognition*.

- "Accuracy, Language Dependence, and Joyce's Argument for Probabilism",
*Philosophy of Science*. Here is a*Mathematica*notebook, which verifies the main example reported in the paper. Here is a helpful response by Paul Pedersen and Clark Glymour. And, here is a similar discussion by Richard Pettigrew. In light of these replies (and related considerations involving other judgment types), I have abandoned this line of criticism of such Joycean arguments.

- "An 'Evidentialist' Worry About Joyce's Argument for Probabilism" (with Kenny Easwaran),
*Dialectica*. Here is a helpful response by Richard Pettigrew.

- "Favoring, Likelihoodism, and Bayesianism",
*Philosophy and Phenomenological Research*(part of a book symposium for Elliott Sober's recent book*Evidence and Evolution*).

- "Evidence of Evidence is not (necessarily) Evidence",
*Analysis*.

- "The Wason Task(s) and the Paradox of Confirmation" (with Jim Hawthorne),
*Philosophical Perspectives*, J. Hawthorne and J. Turner (*eds*.). Here is a*technical addendum*to the paper, which contains (some of) the underlying technical details (including an improvement on our previous approach to the raven paradox).

- "Contrastive Bayesianism",
*Contrastivism in Philosophy*, M. Blaauw (*ed*.), Routledge.

- "Probabilistic Measures of Causal Strength" (with Chris Hitchcock), in
*Causality in the Sciences*, P. Illari, F. Russo and J. Williamson (*eds*.), Oxford University Press. Click here to download the companion*Mathematica*notebook that goes along with this paper, click here for a PDF version of that notebook, and click here to download the*Mathematica*package PrSAT itself.

- "Strengthening the Case for
*Knowledge from Falsehood*",*Analysis*.

- "Pollock on Probability in Epistemology",
*Philosophical Studies*(as part of a book symposium for John Pollock's book*Thinking About Acting*).

- "What is the `Equal Weight View'?" (with David Jehle)
*Episteme*special issue on disagreement, edited by David Christensen. Click here to download the companion*Mathematica*notebook that goes along with this paper, click here for a pdf version of that notebook, and and click here to download the*Mathematica*package PrSAT itself.

- "A Decision Procedure for Probability Calculus with Applications",
*Review of Symbolic Logic*. Click here to download the companion*Mathematica*notebook that goes along with this paper, click here for a pdf version of that notebook, and click here to download the*Mathematica*package PrSAT itself.

- "Bayesians Sometimes Cannot Ignore Even Very Implausible Theories (even ones that have not yet been thought of)" (with Neil Thomason),
*Australasian Journal of Logic*

- "Goodman's `New Riddle'",
*Journal of Philosophical Logic*

- "Probability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy" (with Vincenzo Crupi and Katya Tentori),
*Thinking and Reasoning*. Here is a podcast in which I discuss the conjunction fallacy (and the base rate fallacy) in the style of this paper. Crupi, Tentori and others have since made significant progress on this project.

- "Steps Toward a Computational Metaphysics" (with Ed Zalta),
*Journal of Philosophical Logic*.

- "The Paradox of Confirmation",
*Blackwell's Philosophy Compass*, Brian Weatherson and Craig Callender,*eds*.

- Review of
*Subjective Probability: The Real Thing*, by Richard Jeffrey,*Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews*, October 2005.

- "Likelihoodism, Bayesianism, and Relational Confirmation",
*Synthese*.

- "Logical Foundations of Evidential Support",
*Philosophy of Science*.

- "How Bayesian Confirmation Theory Handles the Paradox of the Ravens" (with James Hawthorne) in Eells and Fetzer
*eds*.,*The Place of Probability in Science*,*Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science*.

- "Bayesian Confirmation and Auxiliary Hypotheses Revisited: A Reply to Strevens" (with Andrew Waterman),
*British Journal for the Philosophy of Science*. You can read Michael Strevens's (now published) reply here. And, you can read our rejoinder here (the published version is here).

- "Inductive Logic", in
*Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia*, (J. Pfeifer and S. Sarkar, eds.), Routledge Press.

- "Probability", (co-authored with Alan Hájek and Ned Hall) in
*Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia*, (J. Pfeifer and S. Sarkar, eds.), Routledge Press.

- Review of
*Bayesian Epistemology*, by Luc Bovens and Stephan Hartmann,*Mind*.

- "Re-solving
*Irrelevant Conjunction*with Probabilistic Independence" (with James Hawthorne),*Philosophy of Science*.

- Review of
*Bayes's Theorem*, Richard Swinburne (*ed.*),*Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews*, November 2003.

- Review of
*An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic*by Ian Hacking,*Bulletin of Symbolic Logic*.

- Review of
*Interpreting Probability: Controversies and Developments in the Early Twentieth Century*by David Howie,*Philosophy of Science*.

- "A Probabilistic Theory of Coherence",
*ANALYSIS*. [Here is a note explaining two technical corrections to my original coherence measure, and here is a*Mathematica*Notebook which works through the results in that note. The*Mathematica*notebook is also available in PDF format here.]

- Review of
*The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory*by James Joyce,*Mind*.

- "Monty Hall, Doomsday, and Confirmation" (with Darren Bradley),
*ANALYSIS*.

- "Putting the Irrelevance Back Into the Problem of Irrelevant Conjunction",
*Philosophy of Science*.

- "Too Odd (Not) to be True? A Reply to Erik J. Olsson: 'Corroborating Testimony, Probability and Surprise'" (with Luc Bovens, Stephan Hartmann, and Josh Snyder),
*British Journal for the Philosophy of Science*.

- "Symmetries and Asymmetries in Evidential Support" (with Ellery Eells),
*Philosophical Studies*. To be reprinted in A. Eagle (*ed*.),*Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Reading*s, Routledge, 2010.

*Studies in Bayesian Confirmation Theory*(my Ph.D. dissertation: defended May 1, 2001 @ UW-Madison).

- "A Bayesian Account of Independent Evidence with Applications",
*Philosophy of Science*. Philosophy of Science Association Graduate Student Prize Essay, 2000.

- "Measuring Confirmation and Evidence" (with Ellery Eells),
*Journal of Philosophy*.

- "The Plurality of Bayesian Measures of Confirmation and the Problem of Measure Sensitivity",
*Philosophy of Science*

- "How Not to Detect Design" --- A Review of William A. Dembski's "The Design Inference" (with Elliott Sober and Chris Stephens),
*Philosophy of Science*. This paper has also been reprinted in Rob Pennock's collection*Intelligent Design Creationism and its Critics*(MIT Press).

- "Models and Reality" --- A Review of Brian Skyrms'
*Evolution of the Social Contract*(with Elliott Sober, Ellery Eells, and Marty Barrett),*Philosophy and Phenomenological Research*.

- "Plantinga's Probability Arguments Against Evolutionary Naturalism" (with Elliott Sober),
*Pacific Philosophical Quarterly***79**(2): 115-29. This paper has also been reprinted in Rob Pennock's collection*Intelligent Design Creationism and its Critics*(MIT Press).

- "Wayne, Horwich, and Evidential Diversity",
*Philosophy of Science*.

- "Shortest Axiomatizations of Implicational S4 and S5" (with Zac Ernst, Ken Harris, and Larry Wos),
*Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic*.

- "Vanquishing the XCB Question: The Methodological Discovery of the Last Shortest Single Axiom for the Equivalential Calculus" (with Larry Wos and Dolph Ulrich),
*Journal of Automated Reasoning*.

- "Short Single Axioms for Boolean Algebra" (with Bill McCune, Bob Veroff, Ken Harris, Andrew Feist, and Larry Wos),
*Journal of Automated Reasoning*.

- "The Automation of Sound Reasoning and Successful Proof Finding" (with Larry Wos), in
*A Companion to Philosophical Logic*(Blackwell Publishers, Dale Jacquette, ed.).

- "A Concise Axiomatization of RM
_{→}" (with Zac Ernst, Ken Harris, and Larry Wos),*Bulletin of the Section of Logic*(Department of Logic, University of Lodz).

- "Finding Missing Proofs with Automated Reasoning" (with Larry Wos),
*Studia Logica*.

- "Distributivity in and Other Sentential Logics" (with Ken Harris), (2001)
*Journal of Automated Reasoning*. Various OTTER, MACE, and MAGIC input files relevant to this paper are available here. John Slaney wrote a very constructive and informative reply to our paper, which can be downloaded here.

- "Comments on Some Completeness Theorems of Urquhart and Mendez & Salto" (with Ken Harris),
*Journal of Philosophical Logic*.

- "Using
*Mathematica*to Understand the Computer Proof of the Robbins Conjecture",*Mathematica in Education and Research*. See my Robbins Algebra Page for various*Mathematica*files relevant to this paper.

- "Visibility of Earth-Bound Satellites: A Deep Space Network Study", NASA Technical Memorandum 0011310M, prepared at Computer Sciences Corporation, August 1990.

# Presentations

- "When is Evidence of Evidence Evidence?",
*Sawyer Seminar Conference on Expertise and Disagreement*, Northwestern, August 2015.

- "Two Approaches to Belief Revision" (with Ted Shear),
*15th Congress on Logic, Methodology, and Philosophy of Science*, Helsinki, August 2015.

- "Computational Tools for Mathematical Philosophy: A Recent Case Study",
*Summer School on Mathematical Philosophy for Female Students*, MCMP, LMU, July 2015. Here is thenotebook that accompanies this talk.*Mathematica*

- "Convergent
*vs*. Linked Arguments and Independent Evidence: A Bayesian Approach,"*Studying Evidence in the Law: Formal, Computational and Philosophical Methods*, ICAIL 2015, San Diego, June 2015.

- "Two New(ish) Triviality Results for the Indicative Conditional", Dusseldorf, June 2015.

- "Closure, Counter-Closure and Inferential Knowledge",
*VU*, May 2015.

- "Epistemic Utility Theory",
*12th Annual Intermountain West Student Philosophy Conference*, Utah, March 2015.

- "Probability, Confirmation, and the 'Conjunction Fallacy'", RuCCS, February 2015.

- "Belief and Credence: The view from naive epistemic utility theory",
*Workshop on Belief and Degrees of Belief*, Tilburg, October 2014.

- "Accuracy, Coherence and Evidence" (with Kenny Easwaran), Notre Dame, October 2014.

- "Formal Epistemology", tutorial slides from the
*Summer School on Mathematical Philosophy for Female Students*, MCMP, LMU, July 2014.

- "Toward an Epistemic Foundation for Comparative Confidence" (with David McCarthy),
*An Informal Formal Epistemology Meeting*, UW–Madison, April 2014.

- "Individual Coherence and Group Coherence" (with Rachael Briggs, Fabrizio Cariani, and Kenny Easwaran), RuCCS, February 2013.

- "A Framework for Grounding Formal Epistemic Coherence Requirements", New York Philosophical Logic Group (NYPL), NYU, November 2012.

- "Paradoxes of Consistency & (Revising) The Logic of Belief" [video],
*Frontiers of Rationality and Decision*, Groningen, August 2012.

- "Steps Toward a New Foundation for Subjective Probability" (with David McCarthy),
*Decisions, Games, and Logic Workshop*, MCMP @ LMU, June 2012.

- "Comments on The Desirability of Conditionals,"
*Decisions, Games, and Logic Workshop*, MCMP @ LMU, June 2012.

- "A Dilemma for `Epistemic Arguments' Against Classical (Deductive & Inductive) Logic", NYU, December 2011.

- "(Rethinking The) Foundations of Subjective Probability", Proseminar in Cognitive Science 2011, Rutgers University.

- "An 'Evidentialist' Worry About Joyce's Argument for Probabilism" (with Kenny Easwaran),
*XXII Deutscher Kongress für Philosophie*, LMU, Munich, September 2011.

- "Accuracy & Coherence III", Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, June 2011.

- "Goodman's 'Grue' Argument in Historical Perspective, " Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, June 2011. This talk is based (at this point, somewhat loosely) on my "grue" paper.

- "Accuracy & Coherence II", Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, June 2011.

- "PrSAT Tutorial", Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, June 2011. There is also a
*Mathematica*(v. 8) notebook that goes along with this tutorial. And, here is a PDF format version of that notebook.

- "Accuracy & Coherence I", Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, June 2011. Here is a video of the talk.

- "Russellian Descriptions & Gibbardian Indicatives: Two Case Studies Involving Automated Reasoning" (with Paul Oppenheimer), Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, June 2011. Here is a video of the talk.

- "The Wason Task(s) and the Paradox of Confirmation" (with Jim Hawthorne), Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, June 2011.

- "Knowledge from Falsehood",
*Bled Philosophical Conference: Knowledge, Understanding and Wisdom*, Bled, Slovenia, June 2011. Here is a video of the talk.

- "Judgment Under Uncertainty Revisited: Probability
*vs*Confirmation ", Princeton Philosophical Society, April 2011.

- "Some Remarks on the Model Selection Problem" (with Justin Sharber),
*Machine Learning Seminar*, CS Department, Rutgers, April 2011.

- "Favoring, Likelihoodism, and Bayesianism",
*APA Central Division Meetings*, Minneapolis, MN, April 2011.

- "Language Dependence in Philosophy of Science and Formal Epistemology", presented at Rutgers, November 2010.

- "The Problem of Irrelevant Conjunction -- Revisited" (with Jim Hawthorne), presented at the
*Center for Formal Epistemology Opening Celebration Conference*, CMU, June 2010.

- "Partial Belief, Full Belief, and Accuracy-Dominance" (with Kenny Easwaran), presented at the
*Workshop on Degrees of Belief vs Belief*, University of Stirling, May 2010.

- "What is the 'Equal Weight View'?" (with David Jehle), presented at the
*6th Annual Episteme Conference*@ Northwestern, June 2009.

- "Is it rational to have faith? Looking for new evidence, Good’s Theorem, and Risk Aversion" (with Lara Buchak), presented at
*Formal Methods in the Philosophy of Religion*@ Leuven, June 2009.

- "Separabilty Assumptions in Scoring-Rule-Based Arguments for Probabilism" & "Advice-Giving and Scoring-Rule-Based Arguments for Probabilism" (with Lara Buchak), and "Probabilistic Measures of Causal Strength" (with Chris Hitchcock), presented at
*FEF2*@ Michigan, May 2009

- "A Decision Procedure for Probability Calculus with Applications", Logic @ Indiana, February 2009. Click here for the
*Mathematica*7 notebook that goes with this talk (and here for a PDF version thereof). This notebook makes use of the**PrSAT**package, which is explained in my PrSAT paper.

- Logic, Epistemology, and Old Evidence, part of an invited symposium on the old evidence problem (with Clark Glymour, Jim Joyce, and Gabriele Contessa),
*PSA 2008*, Pittsburgh, November 2008.

- "Remarks on Probability and 'Intelligent Design'", ICBS retreat, Fall 2006. Part of a joint presentation with Tania Lombrozo.

- "Likelihoods, Counterfactuals, and Tracking", presented at a session on Sherri Roush's book
*Tracking Truth*@*PSA 2006*in Vancouver, November 2006.

- Comments on Jill North's "Symmetry and Probability",
*BSPC 2006*, July 2006.

- "Kim on the Unconfirmability of Disjunctive Laws",
*SEP 2006*, May 2006.

- "A Historical Introduction to Bayesian Confirmation Theory", Department of Cognitive Sciences and Education (DiSCof), University of Trento, May 2006.

- "Old Evidence, Logical Omniscience & Bayesianism", Philosophy Department / Centre for Time, University of Sydney, March 2006.

- "Judgment Under Uncertainty Revisited: Probability
*vs*Confirmation ", Philsoc, Philosophy Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, March 2006.

- A Historical Introduction to Confirmation Theory, Probability Conference, Philosophy Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, March 2006.

- "The Paradox of Confirmation", Stanford University, Logical Methods in Humanities Workshop, February 2006. This talk is based on my paper on the paradox of confirmation.

- "Some Remarks on the 'Intelligent Design' Controversy", University of Missouri Annual Philosophy of Religion Conference, Philosophy Department, University of Missouri–Columbia, January 2006. This talk is based on my recent paper on the "intelligent design" controversy.

- "Confirmation Theory as a Branch of Inductive Logic: Historical and Philosophical Reflections", presented at the APA Eastern Division Meetings (for an invited symposium on inductive logic with Jim Joyce and Patrick Maher), New York, December 2005. Here is the script that goes with the slides to this talk.

- "Automated Reasoning in Modal Logics: A Framework with Applications", to be presented at
*NA-CAP 2005*, and*AWARD 2005*, both in August 2005. Click here to see the full video of my*NA-CAP 2005*presentation (requires RealOne Player).

- "Logical Foundations of Evidential Support", presented at the
*Nineteenth Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association*(*PSA 2004*) in Austin, Texas, November 18, 2004. This is part of a*Symposium on Confirmation and Inductive Logic*with Jim Joyce and Patrick Maher.

- "Relational and non-Relational Conceptions of Evidential Support", University of Konstanz (
*Philosophy, Probability and Modeling Seminar*), July 2004. There is also a color plot and a*Mathematica 5*notebook (also available in PDF format) that goes with the discussion of the Monty Hall Problem at the end of this talk.

- "Probabilistic Coherence from a Logical Point of View", London School of Economics (
*Bayesian Epistemology Workshop*), June 2004. There are also three background files that accompany this talk. There is a note explaining two technical corrections to my original coherence measure, and there is a*Mathematica 5*Notebook which works through the results in that note. The*Mathematica*notebook is also available in PDF format here.

- "Some Recent Fallacies of Approximation in Bayesian Confirmation Theory", London School of Economics (
*Bayesian Epistemology Workshop*), June 2004.

- "Logical Foundations of Evidential Support", presented at the University of Michigan , Department of Philosophy, February, 2004. Click here to download the script that goes with the slides for this talk.

- "Comments on the Role of Base Rates in Probabilistic Reasoning", presented at the Institute for Cognitive and Brain Sciences, University of California–Berkeley, October, 2003. Here is a podcast in which I discuss the base rate fallacy (and the conjunction fallacy) in the style of this talk.

- "Steps Toward a Computational Metaphysics," (with Ed Zalta) presented at the Computing and Philosophy Conference, Oregon State University, August 2003. Click here to see the full video of our presentation (requires RealOne Player).

- Comments on James Franklin's 'The Representation of Context: Ideas from Artificial Intelligence', presented at the Inference, Culture, and Ordinary Thinking in Dispute Resolution Conference, Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law, Yeshiva University, April, 2003. Papers presented at this conference have recently appeared in a special issue of the journal
*Law, Probability, and Risk*.

- "Comments on Kenneth Presting’s 'Computability and Newcomb’s Problem'", presented at the APA Pacific Division meetings, March 2003.

- "Some Recent Results in Algebra & Logical Calculi Obtained Using Automated Reasoning", presented at the University of California–Berkeley, Logic Colloquium, March 2003.

- "Studies in Bayesian Confirmation Theory", presented at the History and Philosophy of Logic, Mathematics, and Science Working Group, University of California–Berkeley, October, 2002.

- "Lectures on Inductive Logic and Bayesian Confirmation", presented at the Summer School for Philosophy and Probability, University of Konstanz, September, 2002.

- "Some Remarks on the Philosophy of Statistics", presented at the Center for Advanced Scientific Computing, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, August, 2002.

- "Rethinking the Problem of Old Evidence," presented at the Central Valley Philosophical Association Conference, Fresno State University, April 2002. Also presented at Stanford University's Symbolic Systems Forum, April 2002.

- "Comments on Tomoji Shogenji’s 'The Problem of Independence in Justification by Coherence'," presented at the APA Pacific Division meetings, March 2002.

- "Putting the Irrelevance Back Into the Problem of Irrelevant Conjunction," presented at the History and Philosophy of Science Colloquium, University of Colorado–Boulder, November 2001.

- "A Bayesian Account of Independent Evidence with Applications",
*PSA 2000*, Vanvouver, November 2000.

- "The Plurality of Bayesian Measures of Confirmation and the Problem of Measure Sensitivity",
*PSA 1998*, Kansas City, October 1998.

- "Using
*Mathematica*to Understand the Computer Proof of the Robbins Conjecture",*1997 Mathematica Developer Conference,*Wolfram Research, Champaign, October 1997.

# Project Web Pages

**PrSAT**: A Decision Procedure for the Probability Calculus- As of 10/08/14,
**PrSAT**(v2.3) is compatible with v10 of*Mathematica*. - There is also a paper that describes
**PrSAT**and its underlying logic, as well as a companion*Mathematica*notebook that goes along with that paper.

- As of 10/08/14,
- Running MacLogic Under Emulation

- Computational Metaphysics (with Ed Zalta and Paul Oppenheimer)

# Miscellaneous

- "The Philosophical Significance of Stein's Paradox" (with Olav Vassend & Elliott Sober)

- "Two Approaches to Belief Revision" (with Ted Shear)

- Automated Reasoning in Modal Logics

- Distributivity in and Other Sentential Logics

- Computer Proof of the Robbins Conjecture

- "Dempster-Shafer Functions as Metalinguistic Probability Functions"

- "Earman on Old Evidence and Measures of Confirmation"

- "Some Remarks on the 'Intelligent Design' Controversy"

- "Kim's Argument for the Unconfirmability of Disjunctive Laws"

- "The Logical Generality of Williamson's 'Fitch-Like' Modal Triviality"

- "A Concise Analysis of Popper's Qualitative Theory of Verisimilitude"

- New Elegant Axiomatizations of Some Sentential Logics

- Deliberational Dynamics

- Using
*Mathematica*as a Graphical Front-End for(with Zac Ernst)`Otter`

- Skyrmsian model of "Divide the Cake"